Key takeaways
- Investment decisions are becoming more complex due to the uncertainty surrounding AI and the markets.
- Risk no longer depends only on current performance, but on exposure to transformation.
- Execution capability is becoming a key factor in company analysis.
- Due diligence is evolving towards a more dynamic and forward-looking approach.
The way investors evaluate technology companies is quickly changing. By 2026ⁱ, artificial intelligence will not only be transforming products. It will also be fundamentally altering decision-making criteria in private equity. Against this backdrop, traditional due diligence approaches are no longer sufficient to capture the real risks or the potential for value creation.
Investors remain active in 2026ⁱⁱ, but their decisions are harder to make. The decline in public procurement, combined with uncertainty surrounding artificial intelligence, makes it harder to build conviction.
Investment committees are not short of opportunities. They lack visibility. Against this backdrop, due diligence is evolving. It no longer consists simply of validating an existing situation. It must enable an understanding of a trajectory.
Why investors are having more difficulty making decisions
For a long time, investment decisions were based on relatively stable benchmarks. Market multiples, comparables and historical performance helped to structure the analysis. These benchmarks are now under pressure. Public markets no longer provide a clear signal, and the impact of AI remains difficult to model. Investors must make decisions in an environment where some of the variables are unknown. This explains a certain slowdown, particularly in large transactions, where the level of conviction required is high.
How AI is redefining risk in software
Artificial intelligence does not create a uniform risk. It reshuffles the deck. Some companies find their position strengthened. Others become more vulnerable. The difference lies not only in technology, but in deeper factors. Positioning in vertical markets, exposure to regulated environments, and integration into critical workflows are becoming key determinants. In this context, two companies that appear similar may have very different risk profiles. Due diligence must be able to reveal these discrepancies.
Why execution capability is becoming key
One of the major changes observed in 2026 concerns the role of execution. Investors are no longer simply looking to assess the quality of a product or market. They are looking to understand whether a company is capable of transforming itself rapidly. This involves assessing leadership, strategic vision and the ability to implement changes in an uncertain environment. Speed is becoming a key factor. Companies capable of testing, adapting and rolling out changes quickly are seen as more resilient. Conversely, those that evolve slowly become more vulnerable, even if their current position is strong.
Conclusion
Due diligence remains a key element of the investment process, but its nature is changing. It is no longer simply a matter of verifying fundamentals. It now enables us to assess a company’s ability to adapt to a rapidly changing environment. In a world shaped by artificial intelligence, understanding a company’s trajectory is becoming just as important as understanding its current situation.
i Artificial Intelligence Overview, Dedale Intelligence analysis
ii March 2026 Market Intelligence, Dedale Intelligence analysis
